|
Title:
|
IDENTIFYING INDIVIDUAL PARTY PREFERENCE IN POLITICAL STOCK MARKETS |
|
Author(s):
|
Tobias T. Kranz, Florian Teschner, Philipp Roüast, Christof Weinhardt |
|
ISBN:
|
978-989-8704-03-0 |
|
Editors:
|
Piet Kommers and Pedro Isaías |
|
Year:
|
2014 |
|
Edition:
|
Single |
|
Keywords:
|
Election forecasting, judgement bias, prediction markets |
|
Type:
|
Full Paper |
|
First Page:
|
162 |
|
Last Page:
|
169 |
|
Language:
|
English |
|
Cover:
|
|
|
Full Contents:
|
click to dowload 
|
|
Paper Abstract:
|
We study a German political stock market during the 2013 federal election. Previous work shows that traders in these markets are biased and excessively buy their preferred party in real-money political stock market for US elections. We replicate that finding for a play-money market in a more diverse European election system. Analyzing portfolio level data matched with survey data, we are able to consistently predict voter intention in our market population. Moreover, we provide evidence that the bias is consistent over all parties but elevated for underdog parties. Surprisingly analyzing subgroups we find no difference in the bias between tactical and non-tactical voters. Finally, we are able to predict the participants individual party preferences with 70% accuracy using only stock holding data. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
